Heartland Poll Release: Biden Leads in Midwest

Aug 6, 2020 | Report

With 90 days until the election the latest Focus on Rural America poll shows Biden has the momentum to beat Trump in the rural Heartland. 

The Focus on Rural America poll was conducted by David Binder Research in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin using the same methodology that predicted Pete Buttigieg would win the Iowa Caucus. The online poll via email and text to web surveyed 800 rural voters, 200 in each battleground state.

HORSE RACE

The survey shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a 52-41 lead over President Trump across these four states, with 6 percent saying they are undecided at this juncture. This includes 48 percent who say that they will definitely vote for Biden, compared with 34 percent who say they will definitely vote for Trump.

Biden currently leads Trump in each of the four states surveyed, with his largest lead coming in Minnesota (54-36).

Specifically, voters in these four states give Biden the greatest advantage over Trump in the areas of listening to the experts, race relations, bringing the country together, and providing leadership. In addition, 56 percent of voters believe that Biden would be better than Trump at responding to the Coronavirus.

VOTERS SOURING ON TRUMP

 Biden’s lead comes as 54 percent of likely voters across these four states say they feel more negatively about Trump than they did when he was running for election in 2016. That’s nearly twice as many as the percent saying they feel more positively about Trump (28%). 

In explaining what has made them more negative toward Trump, voters in rural parts of the state offer a range of reasons, with many pointing out that Trump seems to have trouble telling the truth. One conservative voter in rural Michigan explains that “Trump is not truthful. He blames everyone else and does not take credit for his mistakes.” Several also point out that Trump’s divisive behavior is the major factor causing them to have become more negative toward him. One moderate Republican in rural Minnesota explains that “his personal attacks on people … he does not unite, he divides. He goes out of his way to create hatred for certain people and groups of people.” 

Overall, 58 percent of voters in these states disapprove of the job that Trump is doing as President, including a majority of voters in each of these states. A majority in each state also believes that Trump typically puts his interests and his reelection before the interests of the American people.

When presented with a list of concerns that have been expressed about President Trump, voters express the most concern over the President “continually using Twitter to lash out at perceived opponents, whether it be Democrats, the media, Republicans who have criticized him, or something he saw on TV.” In addition there is a great deal of concern over Trump’s handling of COVID-19, particularly how his mismanagement of the crisis has led to a surge of unemployment.

Additionally, voters in each state trust Bidens leadership in responding to the Coronavirus by a wide margin. 

RURAL ISSUES

When asked specifically who would do a better job for people living in small towns and rural America, a majority (51%) say Biden.

Voters give Biden the most significant advantage on understanding the values of rural America, and improving access to health care in rural areas. Majorities also believe that Biden would be better than Trump at supporting farmers and stabilizing markets for agriculture commodities, and being relatable to rural Americans.

The findings also point to an opportunity for Biden to bring rural America into the fold on climate solutions. Rural voters strongly support a role for farmers and rural communities as a solution to climate change and believe biofuels are vital for improving air quality and for human health. 

METHODOLOGY

David Binder Research conducted an online survey of 800 likely November 2020 voters from July 30-31. The survey consisted of 200 interviews each in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Respondents were reached via text message using phone numbers associated with their voter registration. The margin of error for the entire survey is ± 3.5%

New Research: Undecideds in Wisconsin Up For Grabs

New Research: Undecideds in Wisconsin Up For Grabs

Jul 9, 2020 | Report

ALBIA, IOWA – Today, Focus on Rural America cofounders Patty Judge and Jeff Link released their latest research on voters in rural and suburban Wisconsin. From June 29 – July 1 Focus on Rural America held four focus groups conducted by David Binder Research. The uncommitted rural and suburban Wisconsin voters, divided into groups by gender and education level, had supported Barack Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016. The voters shared their views on the economy, the candidates, and current events such as the coronavirus pandemic, and how the President is managing it.

You can find our focus group summary here.

The findings show that neither candidate, President Trump nor the former Vice President Joe Biden, are a lock. Past research by Focus on Rural America and David Binder Research showed that Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 with voters who could clearly rattle off his key messages. Today, the President’s agenda is far more vague and generally refers to a strong economy and political division. VP Biden, on the other hand, is a blank slate. Uncommitted voters are aware of his time as VP but aside from characterizations by the Trump Administration to define him in a poor light, voters say they don’t know much about him.

“It’s not all candy and roses, not for Biden or for Trump,” said Link. “Voter views of Trump have shifted, and they can no longer define exactly what it is Trump wants to do during a second term. They still think he’s good for the economy, but he’s lost significant ground. Biden, on the other hand, is a mystery to them. He has yet to define himself to these voters, which leaves an opening for Trump to do it, and he’s running hard to define Biden as weak.”

“These voters don’t know Biden, but they do understand him,” said Judge. “I think he has a real chance to tell his story and remind rural and suburban voters that Donald Trump fights for the rich and powerful, while Joe Biden is a scrappy kid from Scranton who knows what it takes for real people to get ahead, or simply get by. But the time is now. He’s got to reach out to these voters and tell them who he is before Trump does it for him.”

The HEROES Act is a Rural Lifeline

The HEROES Act is a Rural Lifeline

May 13, 2020 | News

House Democrats have proposed $3 trillion in additional relief aid in the HEROES Act. It’s a big bill — real big. Republicans were quick to reject it, but this is more than just a Democratic wish list. There is a ton of common ground in there, including billions for agriculture and rural communities that have missed out on relief in previous aid bills. For the countless problems that have cropped up in recent months, this bill brings ambition and creativity as a response. For a dairy industry that was on the ropes before this crisis even started, margin coverage and support. For agriculture producers who want to donate food but can’t afford the loss, full reimbursement for donations to food banks. There’s boosts to SNAP benefits and child nutrition programs. Meat processing plants have shut down because of acute outbreaks at their facilities — they get support to keep their doors open, and producers get payments for herds they’ve been forced to euthanize. On top of the previous $16 billion in direct payments to ag producers, there’s another $16.5 billion. There’s more: Billions in aid for states and municipalities faced with a fiscal cliff thanks to plummeting tax revenue. $5.5 billion for broadband expansion — something that nearly everyone agrees on but no one can seem to pass. Additional direct payments of $1200 for people making under $75,000. Additional protections for essential workers, whether they’re in a grocery store, a meat packing plant, or a corn field. A big one here is a lifeline for biofuels, an industry that has gone the entire length of this crisis without any help. They’ve been hit especially hard, with fully half the industry offline, and this relief could keep dozens of producers from going out of business. That matters to people. Industry groups of all kinds are applauding the bill — construction, pork producers, dairy farmers, biofuels. It’s a smart move by House Democrats, because when Republicans in the Senate reject this out of hand they are turning down help for the very same industries that their constituents rely on. Democrats are offering people the help that they need — Republicans are offering bankruptcy. It’s a strong contrast.
The Meat Supply is Broken. Thank Trump for That

The Meat Supply is Broken. Thank Trump for That

May 7, 2020 | News

Well, here we are: Meat shortages.

Retailers are limiting meat purchases by consumers as producers are forced to euthanize their herds. At this point you might be asking yourself how we got here, and that’s a good question!

Let’s get to it. 

To start off, a bit of background: When Tyson’s Waterloo, Iowa plant shut its doors, it took at least four percent of national pork processing capability down with it. That was one plant—just one—with 2700 employees, and it’s the result of years and years of consolidation in the industry. The four largest meatpacking firms capture the vast majority of all meatpacking capacity in the country. Their plants are highly concentrated operations with thousands of workers processing billions of pounds of meat every year. When one goes down, we all feel it.

Consumers rely on federal inspectors and regulations to make sure the products coming from these plants are safe. Or rather, they did — until the Trump administration axed regulations and cut the number of inspectors by more than half. So, before any of this started we were faced with a highly leveraged, highly concentrated system of meatpacking plants. Allied with them were a presidential administration, governors, and legislators across the country dead set on helping them maximize efficiency and profit, no matter the risks.

Then a global pandemic hit. 

Workers started getting sick. In a huge plant with thousands of workers and day-long shifts, you start breathing someone else’s air pretty quick. What we’re hearing again and again is that plants were not providing or even enforcing safety standards. The stories are endless: A lack of testing at first, then an unwillingness to test at all. Excessive pressure from management. Staff forced to work shifts while sick. No PPE provided, or even enforced.

It’s a nightmare, and it cost people their lives.

We hear that plants are now taking steps to slow exposure and protect staff — but at this point, it’s all too late. And worse, there’s no sign of accountability coming from Trump. In fact, he’s moved to grant broad liability protections to meatpackers if their employees get sick or die.

All this goes back to Trump. His administration should have been providing guidance to these plants from the beginning, advising and supporting so they could protect their workforce and keep this vital sector online. He didn’t, and now we’re here.

It didn’t have to be this way, and we’re not resigned to this in the future. Changing things will depend on strong leadership, intentional policy, and sound decision making that supports workers and farmers as much as the owners. These plant workers are real people, their lives have value, and they are dying so we can keep food on our plates. The Trump administration has failed them, and we have to make this right.

The Trump Administration Needs to Support the Rural Economy

Apr 16, 2020 | News

Focus on Rural America Co-Founder and former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge held an online press conference with rural leaders in Iowa and Washington, D.C. On the call, the National Farmers Union President, Rob Larew, Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor, former USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, and former Lt. Governor Judge called on the Administration to support rural economies and ensure they have a fighting chance to recover from the global coronavirus pandemic and the social distancing necessary to protect Americans and flatten the curve. 

“Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, our rural economies were struggling. In 2018 Iowa lost $2 billion in gross product to trade disruption. In 2019, 44% of growers across America struggled to cover their costs. Over the past three years, the President and Administration have given small refinery waivers to companies as big as Exxon and Chevron, which diverted more than four billion gallons of biofuels from the market. It is time we do all we can to protect Americans from the coronavirus and work to ensure every part of our economy has a chance to recover from this pandemic. If the President is going to sit down with oil executives to discuss direct payments, he should be doing the same thing with the biofuel industry. Everyone must be represented. We cannot provide a bailout to airlines, cruise ships, and oil companies and expect our economic engine to get back in order.” – Patty Judge, Cofounder of Focus on Rural America, former Iowa Lt. Governor and Secretary of Agriculture.

“Over the last several years, chronic overproduction, severely depressed prices, a global trade war, and extreme weather events have stretched small- and medium-sized family farms thin, pushing many out of business. This financial strain has been exacerbated by consumption shifts and supply chain disruptions related to the coronavirus pandemic. In the coming weeks and months, the Administration’s response will determine whether family farmers and rural communities can weather these challenges or if there will be an even greater wave of consolidation across agriculture.” – Rob Larew, President of the National Farmers Union

“Between fuel demand dropping, government uncertainty, and an economic downturn driven by coronavirus – farmers and biofuel producers have been stretched beyond the breaking point. Nearly half of the biofuel industry is already offline, which is causing a ripple effect throughout rural communities. This is a highly skilled workforce rural America cannot afford to lose and we’re calling on the USDA and this Administration to step in to address this threat.” – Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy

“The coronavirus is hitting and will continue to hit every sector of our economy, including the agriculture industries on which our rural communities rely. Twenty percent of the American economy is connected agriculture and today those producing, processing, and retailing our food supply are on the front line. We must help them continue to provide Americans with a safe supply of food, while also ensuring that our commodity growers, ethanol producers, and other biomanufacturers have access to the market. It is time for the Administration to get creative to minimize barriers and maximize assistance. The USDA could have a profound impact on rural economies if they help move our stable food supply to areas of demand in need of food, and use the Commodity Credit Corporation to mitigate the harm this pandemic is having on biofuel producers and other rural job creators.” – Tom Vilsack, former Secretary of USDA