Caucus Day Poll Release

Feb 3, 2020 | News

We’ve got a Caucus Day surprise for you. 

Our final *FINAL* poll of the caucus. Here’s how things shook out:

Our last statewide poll had Biden out in front with Warren, Buttigieg, and Sanders each in close contention for the second tier. This time, we went into the field from January 28-30th and polled 300 likely caucusgoers statewide through landlines, cell phones, and text-to-web. 

In first we found Pete Buttigieg with 19%, followed by Sanders with 17%, Warren and Biden with 15%, Klobuchar with 11%, and all others well below the viability threshold. 

 

Our biggest takeaway with these final numbers is that anyone who says a particular candidate is best positioned to win is, to borrow from Vice President Biden, full of malarkey. The top four candidates are in a virtual dead heat, and Klobuchar isn’t that far off. That means precinct by precinct delegate counts and realignments are going to make this a nail-biter to the very end. For some more perspective on how this could swing, consider three things: 

First, we saw Buttigieg with the highest net favorability, 69%. But the rest of them? Each over 60% — Warren at 68%, Sanders at 64%, Klobuchar at 63%, Biden at 62%. These candidates are all broadly liked here in Iowa.     

Second: Realignment considerations. 70% of those we reached told us they’ll stick around and pick another candidate if their choice doesn’t reach viability. And of those who say they intend to realign, Warren gets 20%, Klobuchar 17%, Biden 17%, Sanders 13%, and Buttigieg 10%. 

Third, and perhaps most importantly, just 51% of those we surveyed indicated that they were 100% certain of their choice. For those in Iowa or who have visited the state, this is likely consistent with your experience. Even in this final stage, many are still making their final decision — not to mention their second or third choice. 

It’s been a wild ride, and we’re excited to see the results at the end of the night. Whether you’ve been following us since our first poll in September of 2018 or you’re jumping in now, thanks for tuning in. And to all of the staff, volunteers, media, caucusgoers, and especially the candidates: Good luck tonight. 

 

Full poll results here

 

 

 

Trump’s Biofuel Broken Promise

Jan 30, 2020 | Report

Trump promises a lot. But how much does he really deliver? When you look closely, not very much at all. And of those promises, he’s made a complete mess of one in particular — standing up for renewable fuels. Take a look. 

From the first year of his presidency until now, President Trump has granted 85 small refinery exemptions — SREs. These allow oil refiners to waive the amount of biofuel they have to blend into their gasoline. Compare that 85 to just 23 from President Obama over the same amount of time. Seems like a pretty big jump, right? 

Let’s compare the volumes for these exemptions. Under President Obama, about 690 million gallons were exempted from blending. Under President Trump, 4 billion gallons were taken out of the market. Economists and agriculture experts estimate that’s taken destroyed demand for 1.4 billion bushels of corn, cutting off vital markets for farmers. It has slashed corn and soybean prices. It has shutdown or idled production at dozens of ethanol and biodiesel plants. But most importantly, it has undermined the trust between the rural communities across the midwest that depend on this industry and President Trump. 

You see, the ethanol industry creates jobs, directly or indirectly, for more than 850,000 people. All told, it has an economic impact of nearly $200 billion a year. And that money doesn’t get shipped off to the coasts with the fuel. It stays in the communities where the farms and plants are, and creates strong livelihoods for the folks that live there. 

Trump picked Big Oil over all those people. He’s had chance after chance to fix the problem he created, and he’s completely blown it. People out here are going to remember that, and you can bet that we’re not going to let the president forget it either. 

 

January Poll Results

January Poll Results

Jan 20, 2020 | News

Focus on Rural America Co-Founders former Iowa Lt. Gov Patty Judge and Jeff Link released the results of their latest poll on a conference call with reporters Monday morning.

This is the 6th quarterly poll from Focus on Rural America which began tracking presidential preferences and issues in September of 2018.   Our latest survey was fielded January 15 – 18, after the CNN – Des Moines Register Debate in Des Moines, Iowa. Here are the key findings: 

RURAL ISSUES

  • Iowans continue to prefer a candidate who makes it a priority to engage residents of rural Iowa over a candidate who makes it a priority to increase turnout in Iowa’s larger cities and towns 52% – 28%.
  • We asked Iowans whether a candidate should campaign in rural areas for the general election highlighting Trump’s policies which help oil companies and hurt ethanol production or whether they should ignore those places because they will support Trump no matter what.  Overwhelmingly, 86% of Iowa Democrats think the nominee should compete for rural votes while only 9% think it’s a lost cause.
  • Asked specifically whether Trump’s decision to grant waivers to oil companies which hurt ethanol production will hurt him a lot, a little or not at all, 65% said it would hurt him, including 35% that said it would hurt him “a lot.”  Only 27% said his decision would not matter.

We asked regardless of who you are voting for, “which candidate is best for the needs and interests of rural Iowa?”  Sen. Klobuchar has a clear lead with 29% with Sen. Warren, Sen. Sanders, fmr. VP Biden and Mayor Buttigieg essentially tied at 15, 14, 13 and 13 respectively.

HORSE RACE

Former VP Joe Biden led our first poll and leads the final poll with 25% which is identical to his support in our September 2019 survey.  Sen. Elizabeth Warren remains in second with 17% but slips 6 points from her September standing. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders maintain their 3rd and 4th place positions with 16% and 14% respectively up 4 and 5 points from the September poll.  Sen. Klobuchar remains in 5th but is moving closer to the viability threshold with 11% of the vote.

We asked Iowans which candidate is “best equipped to handle the current conflict and tensions between the US and Iran and other global hot spots”?  42% of Iowans chose fmr. VP Joe Biden.

SECOND CHOICE

While second choice is important, new rules this cycle do not allow voters to realign if they start in a preference group that is viable.  We first asked Iowans what they plan to do if their first choice isn’t viable. Would they stay uncommitted, pick someone else or go home?

  • 75% of Iowans said they will choose another candidate.
  • 17% said they would remain uncommitted.
  • 4% said they would go home.
  • 4% said they don’t know

It is significant the 17% say they will remain uncommitted and may indicate that uncommitted will be viable in several precincts.

For those who choose another candidate, of those not currently planning to caucus for a candidate at the viability threshold, Biden receives 24% support, Buttigieg 21%, Warren 16%, Klobuchar 7%, and Sanders 6%.

DEBATE IMPACT 

We asked Iowans if they had a chance to watch Tuesday’s final debate before the caucus.  51% said they watched all or some of it. 40% said they saw none of it. This is a lower number of debate-watchers compared to those who took our survey following the June debate.  But, 73% said they saw quite a bit or some of the news coverage of the debate.

We asked if there are candidates that you are now considering after watching the debate.  16% said Biden, 11% said Klobuchar, 10% said Warren, 9% said Buttigieg and 7% said Sanders.

We asked if there are candidates that you have definitely decided NOT to support based on their debate performance?  12% said Warren, 11% said Sanders, 4% said Steyer, 3% said Biden and Buttigieg and2% said Klobuchar.

METHODOLOGY

This survey was a combination of cell phones and land lines.  The sample size is 500 likely 2020 caucus goers with a margin of error +/- 4.4% conducted January 15-18, 2020.

Rural: Ask Them About It

Rural: Ask Them About It

Nov 19, 2019 | Report

As we all know, the next debate of the Democratic primary is tomorrow, November 20th. We’ve had a few of these already, and we’ve gotten a lot of good air time on candidates foreign policy plans, their health care plans, or their perspective on President Trump. What we haven’t seen much of is attention paid to rural America — and that’s a real shame. These candidates each have dedicated rural plans, or at the very least infrastructure, health care, education, or other plans that focus on the rural components of these issues. When given the chance, they love to talk about them. 

Case in point: The biggest Democratic Party event of the year was just a few weeks ago — Iowa’s Liberty and Justice Celebration in Des Moines. Lot of attention paid to what often amounted to the same stump speeches these candidates make on a daily basis. The next day, in Cedar Rapids, Representative Finkenauer had a forum of her own. It was focused on infrastructure and jobs. And it gave us some of the most substance, the most depth that we’ve yet seen in this primary. 

Elizabeth Warren speaking on rural broadband:

Pete Buttigieg on Trump’s Big Oil Waivers:

Bernie Sanders talking on clean energy infrastructure and biofuels: 

These are just three moments from a *three hour long* forum where 9 candidates shared detail on their vision for investing in infrastructure and jobs, often with a laser focus on rural issues. So this goes to the broadcasters: Ask these candidates about their plans! Give them the opportunity to talk about something they have a clear passion for. And to the candidates and their campaigns, because we’ve seen that we can’t count on the broadcasters: Take every opportunity you can to deliver your vision for small towns, for rural communities, for the areas that get passed over in the larger process in the debate tomorrow. 

Success in the general election will come through breaking down barriers and squeezing margins in those areas. You have done the work. You have strong plans. You are far better suited and better prepared to deliver a hopeful economic message to these communities than the president is. Show that to the country. 

The Economic Gap in Rural America

The Economic Gap in Rural America

Nov 14, 2019 | News

A new report from the USDA reinforces what we’ve been seeing on the ground in Iowa and across rural America: Population levels and personal incomes are falling off, while poverty rates are on the rise. This bad news means it is more important than ever for presidential candidates to articulate their vision for helping rural communities get back on track.

In America’s completely rural counties, populations declined by up to 2% from 2010 to 2018. As populations declined, so too did growth in employment. These figures are more than what the numbers show — they illustrate what we’ve been hearing for a long time. You might feel the recovery on Wall Street, of if you live in the cities and the suburbs, but if you’re from a small town or a rural county things haven’t been getting much better for you. 

 

Things may have improved for some, but many still feel as though they are being left behind. You can see this most clearly through what the study reveals about personal income growth. In this time of supposed recovery and national wage growth, wages in farming and mining counties have actually fallen. That’s after President Trump ran a campaign on supporting both of those industries. 

It is absolutely vital we reverse these declining economic conditions in rural America. The 46 million Americans living in non-metro counties are just as important as those who live anywhere else. The good news is we have seen a lot of positive momentum from Democratic presidential candidates on this front. 

We’ve seen a number of plans aimed directly at halting this decline in rural areas. They go after school consolidation, hospital closures, crumbling infrastructure, Farm Bill reform, water and soil quality, value added agriculture and manufacturing, and more. It amounts to a complete recommitment to these important, hardworking people. 

Most importantly, they show Democrats are paying attention — that they care. That’s more than President Trump can say. What candidates need to do now is deliver these rural commitments to a national audience.