We’ve got a Caucus Day surprise for you. 

Our final *FINAL* poll of the caucus. Here’s how things shook out:

Our last statewide poll had Biden out in front with Warren, Buttigieg, and Sanders each in close contention for the second tier. This time, we went into the field from January 28-30th and polled 300 likely caucusgoers statewide through landlines, cell phones, and text-to-web. 

In first we found Pete Buttigieg with 19%, followed by Sanders with 17%, Warren and Biden with 15%, Klobuchar with 11%, and all others well below the viability threshold. 

Our biggest takeaway with these final numbers is that anyone who says a particular candidate is best positioned to win is, to borrow from Vice President Biden, full of malarkey. The top four candidates are in a virtual dead heat, and Klobuchar isn’t that far off. That means precinct by precinct delegate counts and realignments are going to make this a nail-biter to the very end. For some more perspective on how this could swing, consider three things: 

First, we saw Buttigieg with the highest net favorability, 69%. But the rest of them? Each over 60% — Warren at 68%, Sanders at 64%, Klobuchar at 63%, Biden at 62%. These candidates are all broadly liked here in Iowa.     

Second: Realignment considerations. 70% of those we reached told us they’ll stick around and pick another candidate if their choice doesn’t reach viability. And of those who say they intend to realign, Warren gets 20%, Klobuchar 17%, Biden 17%, Sanders 13%, and Buttigieg 10%. 

Third, and perhaps most importantly, just 51% of those we surveyed indicated that they were 100% certain of their choice. For those in Iowa or who have visited the state, this is likely consistent with your experience. Even in this final stage, many are still making their final decision — not to mention their second or third choice. 

It’s been a wild ride, and we’re excited to see the results at the end of the night. Whether you’ve been following us since our first poll in September of 2018 or you’re jumping in now, thanks for tuning in. And to all of the staff, volunteers, media, caucusgoers, and especially the candidates: Good luck tonight. 

Full poll results here

In the post-debate poll in Iowa, Focus on Rural America found some shakeups among the Democratic presidential contenders and some key takeaways for the field. Iowa Democrats are focused on electability and they see rural issues and a rural strategy as key to that end.

“The candidates are showing up in rural Iowa and voters are noticing. Most have come out with rural plans and that alone is more than we saw from Democrats in 2016. With Trump picking oil and gas over the rural economy, Democrats have a real opportunity. This poll shows without a doubt that Iowa Democrats want our candidates to talk about this because they recognize rural Iowa is a key component of any path to the White House,” said Jeff Link, Co-Founder of Focus on Rural America.

Voters don’t believe that President Trump allowing year-round E15 is enough to fix his Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) decision to give small refinery waivers to oil refineries, like Exxon and Chevron, and 76 percent believe the Trump Administration actions will hurt Iowa’s farmers and rural economy. An astounding 89 percent of voters believe that it is important Democratic candidates bring up the issue of the Trump oil giveaways and the disastrous effects for Iowa, with 57 percent saying that it is extremely or very important. Additionally, 83 percent of Iowa Democratic voters believe that Democrats should campaign in rural areas and make their case to rural residents.

“If Democrats keep showing up in rural communities and standing up for rural voters, we will win the 2020 election. We have an incredible field of candidates and most of them are focused on revitalizing the rural economy, undoing the damage of Trump’s small refinery waivers, and restoring some order to politics-as-usual,” said Patty Judge, Chair of Focus on Rural America and past Lt. Governor and Secretary of Agriculture for Iowa.

Other key findings:

• If the caucuses were held today Biden would win, taking 25%, however Warren closely trails with 23%. Continuing to gain momentum, Buttigieg took 12%. Sanders and Klobuchar follow at 9% and 8%.
• More than half of voters have ruled out Castro (60%) and Yang (64%), while 46% have decided against Sanders and O’Rourke.
• Based solely on debate performance, 18% of caucus goers ruled out Castro, while 9% wouldn’t support Biden.

Support for a centrist candidate remains. 60% said they believe Democrats need to move to the center to beat Trump. 32% strongly believe beating Trump will take a moderate Democrat.

ALBIA, IOWA – Focus on Rural America’s latest poll went into the field following the very first Democratic debate of the year. The findings provide exciting shakeups for the horserace and steady support for rural America.

“I’m excited to see Iowans closely followed the first debate and will continue to work with the candidates to ensure they are engaging rural Americans in a meaningful way,” said Focus on Rural America Chair Lt. Governor Patty Judge. “Our poll shows that Iowans are paying attention and that they are prioritizing someone who can win rural America, because that’s what it will take to beat President Trump.”

The Focus on Rural America poll shows the current top candidates are in a virtual three-way tie. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are on top with 20% and 18% respectively while Vice President Biden holds 17%. Next in line is Senator Bernie Sanders at 12%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 10% and Senator Amy Klobuchar at 4%.

The two nights of debate made for a crowded stage and had a huge impact on voters. 63% saw some or more of the debate while 83% followed the debate’s media coverage. 26% of voters said the debates had a big impact their opinions, in addition to the 37% who were persuaded by the debates at least somewhat.

The head-to-head polling above reflects the takeaway voters had on the debate winners. Most voters said, based on debate performance, they were won over by Harris (34%), Warren (16%), Buttigieg (11%), Biden (7%) Castro (6%) and Sanders (6%).

Having more than 20 candidates to choose from shook up the debates and left a few of them off the stage, but this year voter participation will see some changes as well. In Iowa the caucuses will expand by including a virtual option for voters to participate online. 20% of Iowan’s we polled reported they planned to caucus virtually but we weighted their choice to only 10% to accurately reflect the rules established for a virtual caucus.

The good news for rural America? Exciting debates and virtual caucuses don’t change everything. 83% of Iowans support expanding production of renewable biofuels and 64% think President Trump’s waivers for oil and gas companies hurt rural economies. In addition, our latest poll maintains the steady report from Iowans on how to beat President Trump. 62% said Democrats should stick to the center, as opposed to the left, and 51% believe they need to prioritize engaging rural voters.

Focus on Rural America is polling Iowans quarterly and will have our next poll in the field this September.