Focus on Rural America: New Polling Shows Harris Leading in Michigan and Wisconsin, Tied with Trump in Pennsylvania

Oct 2, 2024 | News, Report

Des Moines, IA – A new poll conducted by Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies between September 19th and
23rd reveals Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Michigan and
Wisconsin, while the race is tied in Pennsylvania. The survey of 400 likely voters in each state also show
Democratic Senate candidates leading in all three states.
Former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge, co-founder of Focus on Rural America said, “It’s a big mistake to think
Trump-Vance have a lock on rural voters. Harris-Walz are out performing Trump and Vance in farm
state battlegrounds and they maintain a strong advantage on issues that matter the most to rural
voters.”
“Senate Democrats also hold decisive leads in key Midwest battlegrounds,” continued Judge. “Democrat
appeal runs deep in rural America, including access to rural health care, fighting for farmers and
biofuels, and protecting investments in climate smart agriculture.”

Presidential Race Highlights:

  • Michigan: Harris leads Trump 51% to 45%.
  • Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump 51% to 45%.
  • Pennsylvania: Harris and Trump are tied at 48%.
    Harris’ support is particularly strong among independent voters and women, with significant gender
    gaps in Michigan and Wisconsin. Harris leads among women by 20 points in Michigan and 21 points in
    Wisconsin, while Trump holds an edge with male voters.
    Key Issues Where Harris-Walz Lead:
  • Working with both parties: Harris-Walz lead by 12-16 points across the three states.
  • Unifying the country: Harris-Walz hold a double-digit lead in all states.
  • Telling the truth and leading with character: Harris-Walz lead by 7-13 points across the board.
    Senate Races:
  • Michigan: Elissa Slotkin leads Mike Rogers, 50% to 45%.
  • Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin leads Eric Hovde, 52% to 44%.
  • Pennsylvania: Bob Casey leads David McCormick, 47% to 45%.
    The survey shows Democratic candidates performing strongly across multiple key issues, indicating
    competitive races heading into the final stretch of the 2024 election.
    Contact: Fmr. Lt. Gov. Patty Judge
    Focus on Rural America
    Email: info@focusruralamerica.org

Phone: (515) 210-2071

Focus on Rural America: New Polling Shows Harris-Walz Ticket Strong with Rural Voters in Key Battleground States

Oct 2, 2024 | News, Report

Des Moines, IA – A new survey conducted by RG Strategies between September 19th and 23rd across
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin shows the Harris-Walz presidential ticket outperforming Trump
and Vance on key issues important to rural and small-town voters. The survey polled 400 likely voters in
each state and revealed strong support for Harris-Walz across a range of critical issues.
Key findings indicate that over two-thirds of voters in each state believe it is very important for the next
President to address the challenges facing small-town and rural workers. Additionally, Harris and Walz
hold a significant lead over Trump and Vance on issues such as improving healthcare access in rural
areas and understanding rural life.
“What we see reflected in the poll is that rural voters clearly remember how they fared under Donald
Trump,” said former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge. “Rural America suffered from Trump’s giveaways to his friends
at Big Oil at the expense of American ethanol. His policy of  allowing Big Oil to claim small refinery
exemptions that were meant for locally owned rural plants along with his trade war with China that hurt
agricultural goods most — were certainly not Rural America friendly”.
Top Issues Where Harris-Walz Lead:

  • Improving access to healthcare in rural areas: Harris-Walz lead by 12 points in both Michigan and
    Wisconsin, and by 11 points in Pennsylvania.
  • Understanding life in rural America: Harris-Walz lead by 5 points in Michigan, 7 points in Wisconsin,
    and 2 points in Pennsylvania.
    Rural voters also expressed strong support for the next President to prioritize climate-related
    agricultural issues, with overwhelming majorities in all three states supporting initiatives like climate-
    smart agriculture, biofuel integration, and the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
    The survey was conducted through a combination of telephone and online interviews, with a margin of
    error of ±4.9% per state. Tomorrow we will release results pf the presidential and senate horse races in
    each of the three states

Contact:

Fmr. Lt. Gov Patty Judge
Focus on Rural America
Email: pattyjudge1@gmail.com
Phone: (515) 210-2071

Heartland Poll, October 2020: Biden Leads in Key Battleground States

Oct 14, 2020 | Report

With 20 days to go until the election, likely  November 2020 voters shows that voters in Iowa have moved toward President Trump, while voters in Minnesota and Wisconsin are strongly in Biden’s camp.   Moreover, 46 percent of voters in these states say that they feel more negatively about Trump than they did in 2016, compared to just 37% who feel more positively toward the President.

HORSE RACE

The survey shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a 50-45 lead over President Trump across these three states, with 6 percent saying they are undecided at this juncture. This includes 47 percent who say that they will definitely vote for Biden, compared with 43 percent who say they will definitely vote for Trump.

However, opinion differs strongly by state, with Iowa voters preferring Trump by 50-44, while Wisconsin voters prefer Biden by 53-43, and Minnesota voters prefer Biden by 52-41.   Wisconsin seems to have especially firmed up for the former Vice President, with 51% of Wisconsin voters saying they will definitely vote for Biden.

If the election for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

 

Biden

Trump

Overall

50

45

Iowa

44

50

Minnesota

52

41

Wisconsin

53

43

Compared to the previous FORA poll in August, Iowa has moved toward Trump (was 49-43 Biden), while Minnesota and Wisconsin are similar to the August poll (Minnesota was 54-36, Wisconsin was 53-42).  Please note higher margin of error on the state specific samples.  With 200 per state, each individual state is subject to a margin of error of 7%.

VOTERS SOURING ON TRUMP

Biden’s lead comes as 47 percent of likely voters across these four states say they feel more negatively about Trump than they did when he was running for election in 2016, compared to 37% who feel more positively.  A plurality in each state say they are more negative on the President today, compared to 2016. 

Thinking about your opinion of Donald Trump when he was running for election in 2016, is your opinion of him today …

 

More Positive

More Negative

Overall

37

47

Iowa

38

44

Minnesota

37

52

Wisconsin

36

47

Overall, 47 percent of voters in these states disapprove of the job that Trump is doing as President, including a majority of voters in each of these states. A plurality in each state also believes that Trump typically puts his interests and his reelection before the interests of the American people.

If you had to choose, would you say Donald Trump puts…

 

The American people first

His interests and his reelection first

Overall

44

52

Iowa

47

48

Minnesota

43

53

Wisconsin

43

56

RURAL ISSUES

When asked specifically who would do a better job for people living in small towns and rural America, 47% say Biden and 44% say Trump. 

Between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who do you think would do a better job for people living in small towns and rural America?

 

Biden

Trump

Overall

47

44

Iowa

45

47

Minnesota

47

43

Wisconsin

49

42

METHODOLOGY

RG Strategies conducted a telephone and online survey of 600 likely November 2020 voters from October 10-13. The survey consisted of 200 interviews each in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Respondents were reached either by cell or landline phone, or via text message using phone numbers associated with their voter registration. The margin of error for the entire survey is ± 4.0%, and 6.9% for each individual state.

Heartland Poll Release: Biden Leads in Midwest

Aug 6, 2020 | Report

With 90 days until the election the latest Focus on Rural America poll shows Biden has the momentum to beat Trump in the rural Heartland. 

The Focus on Rural America poll was conducted by David Binder Research in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin using the same methodology that predicted Pete Buttigieg would win the Iowa Caucus. The online poll via email and text to web surveyed 800 rural voters, 200 in each battleground state.

HORSE RACE

The survey shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a 52-41 lead over President Trump across these four states, with 6 percent saying they are undecided at this juncture. This includes 48 percent who say that they will definitely vote for Biden, compared with 34 percent who say they will definitely vote for Trump.

Biden currently leads Trump in each of the four states surveyed, with his largest lead coming in Minnesota (54-36).

Specifically, voters in these four states give Biden the greatest advantage over Trump in the areas of listening to the experts, race relations, bringing the country together, and providing leadership. In addition, 56 percent of voters believe that Biden would be better than Trump at responding to the Coronavirus.

VOTERS SOURING ON TRUMP

 Biden’s lead comes as 54 percent of likely voters across these four states say they feel more negatively about Trump than they did when he was running for election in 2016. That’s nearly twice as many as the percent saying they feel more positively about Trump (28%). 

In explaining what has made them more negative toward Trump, voters in rural parts of the state offer a range of reasons, with many pointing out that Trump seems to have trouble telling the truth. One conservative voter in rural Michigan explains that “Trump is not truthful. He blames everyone else and does not take credit for his mistakes.” Several also point out that Trump’s divisive behavior is the major factor causing them to have become more negative toward him. One moderate Republican in rural Minnesota explains that “his personal attacks on people … he does not unite, he divides. He goes out of his way to create hatred for certain people and groups of people.” 

Overall, 58 percent of voters in these states disapprove of the job that Trump is doing as President, including a majority of voters in each of these states. A majority in each state also believes that Trump typically puts his interests and his reelection before the interests of the American people.

When presented with a list of concerns that have been expressed about President Trump, voters express the most concern over the President “continually using Twitter to lash out at perceived opponents, whether it be Democrats, the media, Republicans who have criticized him, or something he saw on TV.” In addition there is a great deal of concern over Trump’s handling of COVID-19, particularly how his mismanagement of the crisis has led to a surge of unemployment.

Additionally, voters in each state trust Bidens leadership in responding to the Coronavirus by a wide margin. 

RURAL ISSUES

When asked specifically who would do a better job for people living in small towns and rural America, a majority (51%) say Biden.

Voters give Biden the most significant advantage on understanding the values of rural America, and improving access to health care in rural areas. Majorities also believe that Biden would be better than Trump at supporting farmers and stabilizing markets for agriculture commodities, and being relatable to rural Americans.

The findings also point to an opportunity for Biden to bring rural America into the fold on climate solutions. Rural voters strongly support a role for farmers and rural communities as a solution to climate change and believe biofuels are vital for improving air quality and for human health. 

METHODOLOGY

David Binder Research conducted an online survey of 800 likely November 2020 voters from July 30-31. The survey consisted of 200 interviews each in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Respondents were reached via text message using phone numbers associated with their voter registration. The margin of error for the entire survey is ± 3.5%

New Research: Undecideds in Wisconsin Up For Grabs

New Research: Undecideds in Wisconsin Up For Grabs

Jul 9, 2020 | Report

ALBIA, IOWA – Today, Focus on Rural America cofounders Patty Judge and Jeff Link released their latest research on voters in rural and suburban Wisconsin. From June 29 – July 1 Focus on Rural America held four focus groups conducted by David Binder Research. The uncommitted rural and suburban Wisconsin voters, divided into groups by gender and education level, had supported Barack Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016. The voters shared their views on the economy, the candidates, and current events such as the coronavirus pandemic, and how the President is managing it.

You can find our focus group summary here.

The findings show that neither candidate, President Trump nor the former Vice President Joe Biden, are a lock. Past research by Focus on Rural America and David Binder Research showed that Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 with voters who could clearly rattle off his key messages. Today, the President’s agenda is far more vague and generally refers to a strong economy and political division. VP Biden, on the other hand, is a blank slate. Uncommitted voters are aware of his time as VP but aside from characterizations by the Trump Administration to define him in a poor light, voters say they don’t know much about him.

“It’s not all candy and roses, not for Biden or for Trump,” said Link. “Voter views of Trump have shifted, and they can no longer define exactly what it is Trump wants to do during a second term. They still think he’s good for the economy, but he’s lost significant ground. Biden, on the other hand, is a mystery to them. He has yet to define himself to these voters, which leaves an opening for Trump to do it, and he’s running hard to define Biden as weak.”

“These voters don’t know Biden, but they do understand him,” said Judge. “I think he has a real chance to tell his story and remind rural and suburban voters that Donald Trump fights for the rich and powerful, while Joe Biden is a scrappy kid from Scranton who knows what it takes for real people to get ahead, or simply get by. But the time is now. He’s got to reach out to these voters and tell them who he is before Trump does it for him.”