Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead among Democratic Iowans who intend to participate in the 2020 Democratic caucus, but his lead over Bernie Sanders has diminished.  Six candidates make up a second tier: Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke. 

Joe Biden, Beto O’Rourke and Amy Klobuchar have each fallen between  4% and 5% since December. As a new entrant, Pete Buttigieg, is now tied for 6th place at 6%.

Democratic caucus goers are paying much more attention to the contest now, compared to last December, and have strongly positive views of many of the contenders.  

Name recognition of many candidates has increased substantially in the last three months. Several candidates have also show significant increases in the proportion of voters who hold positive opinions about them, with at least a 10% increase in positive opinion seen by Cory Booker, Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, and Amy Klobuchar. Pete Buttigieg, not asked about in the December survey, also shows significant positive opinion at 44%.

Iowa Democratic caucus goers express a desire to hear more from the candidates, especially those lesser known or who recently announced. 

When asked if they have already heard enough from the candidates or would like to hear more, a majority or more of Iowa Democratic caucus voters say they would like to hear more from: O’Rourke (58%), Harris (58%), Booker (56%), Buttigieg (54%), Klobuchar (53%), Gillibrand (51%), Castro (51%), and Inslee (51%).

More Iowa Democratic caucus goers are seeking a candidate who will pay attention to the needs of rural voters.  

66% of likely Democratic caucus voters say it is absolutely critical or very important to elect a Presidential candidate who wants to help economic development in rural America, up from 60% last September.   This finding is in keeping with other research that shows Democratic voters seek candidates who will appeal to the entire Democratic electorate, regardless of gender, ethnicity, age, or geographical location.

When asked to choose between two candidates who are similar on the issues they care about, 50% of likely Democratic caucus voters choose a candidate who makes it a priority to engage with rural voters, while only 37% prefer one who makes it a priority to increase turnout in Iowa’s larger cities and towns.  Another 13% has no preference. Among rural Democratic voters in Iowa, this preference 62% to 24% for the candidate who engages with rural voters.

There is very strong support for candidates who support ethanol.   

84% of likely Iowa Democratic caucus voters say they are more likely to support a candidate for President who supports expanding production of renewable biofuels like ethanol, and growing related jobs in rural communities.   Only 10% would oppose such a candidate.

Specifically on the issue of the EPA giving secret small refinery waivers to major oil companies and allowing them to use less renewable fuels, 80% of Iowa Democrats say that they would be more likely to support a candidate who vows to end this practice, while only 15% say that they would be more likely to oppose this candidate.

Methodology

David Binder Research conducted 500 interviews by cell phone and landline on March 21st to 24th, 2019 with registered voters in Iowa who stated they were likely to participate in the Democratic Presidential caucuses of 2020. All participants were recruited from official Iowa voter lists.  

Results are subject to a margin of error of no greater than ±4.4%.

On January 29th, Focus on Rural America held our first legislative reception. It was exciting to see Senate Democratic Leader Janet Peterson and House Minority Leader Todd Prichard at the event, along with most of the state House and Senate Democrats.

Speaking at the event were Tom Vilsack, former Secretary of the USDA and Iowa Governor, Patty Judge, former Lt. Governor of Iowa and state Secretary of Agriculture, and Robert Leonard, who is the news director for KNIA/KRLS radio and a contributor to the New York Times.  

Vilsack, Judge and Leonard had a simple message for Iowa legislators. Visit rural communities, take the time to understand rural problems, and engage 2020 candidates in championing rural issues. If progressives want to win statewide and at the national level, reconnecting with rural Americans is critical.

Rural Americans make our lives better. These communities disproportionately contribute to our military and they are to thank for our food security. They need leaders who are as committed to them as they are to our nation. In a thoughtful overview, Secretary Vilsack provided the basics to understanding and engaging in rural America.

First, we need to recognize the bedrock of stability that production agriculture provides to rural America. It supports jobs related to manufacturing, food production systems far beyond the farm, and exports. As well, it directly competes with fossil fuel extraction and petroleum manufacturing.

Progressives have a chance to uplift rural communities by engaging in bio-based production and manufacturing and find ways within trade policy to support producers. Progressives should be leading on efforts to connect small famers to bulk purchasers in their local and regional food systems, such as schools and hospitals. And of course, understanding and supporting the programs that offset the risks associated with safely, and economically feeding our nation.

The business of farming and agricultural manufacturing fosters and supports a relationship with our environment. More often then not, our farmers are the very sportsmen hunting on our wetlands and finding investments for conservation, even adding their own land to an easement. Food and beverage companies are finding ways to give back to our environment and our rural communities provide many of the opportunities for them to do so.

By working with rural communities, 2020 candidates have the chance to increase opportunities for small farmers, increase conservation investments, and create good jobs in areas that need them.

As Iowans citizens and legislators meet with presidential candidates, we hope you’ll talk to them about one of the most important topics this cycle – rural America.

Focus on Rural America Poll Results: Iowans want a problem solver

Closing out 2018, Focus on Rural America’s December poll showed likely caucus-goers maintain a favorite – former Vice President Joe Biden.  Biden’s support dipped seven points since our September poll, but he remains at the top of a growing pack with support from 30 percent of Iowa Democrats.

While Biden is still a favorite, the spread widens as candidates like former Congressman Beto O’Rourke and Senator Amy Klobuchar gain support and familiarity. Our December poll features those new names as well as Sherrod Brown, Michael Bloomberg, and John Kerry.

Iowa Democrats value two key characteristics regarding the next nominee – someone who will rise above the partisan divide, and who is a tested and proven problem solver.  

Among the qualities we polled, appeal for someone who “knows how to negotiate and get things done” increased by 13 points, to 74 percent. Democrats prefer this quality over a candidate who promises to stick to their beliefs, even if it causes gridlock.

As well, Democrats are searching for a candidate with characteristics they can trust and rely on. The top two qualities voters are looking for in a candidate continue to be the ability “to heal the racial, ethnic and partisan divide”, and a reputation of “making good judgements and working with and listening to others.”

In terms of what voters want the next candidate to focus on, the problems we all face are top of mind. Even though President Trump continues to frustrate Iowa Democrats – with a 98% strongly unfavorable view – only 34 percent of Iowa progressives prioritize candidates who call for impeachment hearings.

Instead, issues Iowa’s likely caucus-goers are focused on are the problems we face today that will remain front and center for the next president. On the issues, in both our September and December polls, voters called out for leadership that will address the high cost of living and stand up for the middle class, fight against and lead on climate change, and invest in economic development for rural America. 

At the end of the day – progressives want someone who has what it takes to solve problems and will focus on the issues at hand.

View the results of our poll here. 

Focus on Rural America Poll Results:
Leaders should listen, work across the aisle, and invest in science-based solutions. 

In our effort to understand what’s happening in Iowa and the trends taking place from one election to the next, Focus on Rural America’s inaugural, September 20, 2018, poll surveyed 500 Iowans who are likely to attend the 2020 Democratic caucus.

Among their top priorities are characteristics to which Iowans can relate. Democratic caucus-goers want to see candidates who are known for good judgement on issues that impact all of us. Candidates should stand comfortably on a reputation of listening to others and reference their experience working across the aisle with people of diverse backgrounds and perspectives.

Top issues among Iowans surveyed are that candidates need to value and believe in science, lead on climate change, and support renewable biofuels. Candidates must accept the evidence that our climate is changing and commit to making America a leader on this issue once again. 70 percent of respondents believe it’s important that candidates for President support expanding renewable biofuels, like ethanol, which reduce greenhouse gases by 43 percent compared to gasoline.

Our communities need leaders who focus on evidence and will prioritize research and innovation. We need creative solutions to revitalize rural communities, like renewable biofuels and wind generation, and go beyond to improve health services, good jobs, and housing. Candidates need to visit, listen, and work to understand how important these investments are in rural towns.

Less important, resonating with only 38 percent of respondents, is the idea that candidates should bring out-side-the-beltway experience. Caucus-goers expressed more interest in candidates that have government experience and know-how to get things done.

These results show that Iowa caucus-goers want candidates to listen to and unify our nation. By having conversations and creating long-lasting partnerships, we can begin tackling the problems facing both rural and urban voters – the increasing cost-of-living, middle class values, and jobs that will support a greener economy.